87 Percent Chance Of A Trump Win?

Though the narrative driven by major media organizations has been a comfortable Clinton lead, early voting indicators and historically-accurate polls seem to tell a different story.  Based on purportedly more reliable indicators, Professor Helmut Norpoth argues Trump has an 87% chance of winning:

Norpoth said he takes the “long historical view that this election is poised to tip the scales toward the Republicans because of the swing of the pendulum, with or without Trump.”

“My feeling always has been, what I saw in the primaries, was that Donald Trump did very well. He beat a large field. According to my metric, about how primaries are shaping up, he did better than Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race, so that gave him a leg up,” he said, leading to his prediction seven months ago that Trump would win the election.

“I still feel that there are these factors at play that may be obscured right now, or trumped – to use a pun – by things that the candidate does himself. If he can find a way to help himself a little bit more, I think he would be able to capitalize on those advantages,” he said.

Norpoth explained that his model does not rely on opinion polling: “It’s real polls. It’s what happens in elections, past elections, general elections, and primary elections. This time, I simply based my prediction on what happened in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Trump, as we know, won both. Hillary won just one of them. Relative to the strongest opposition, Trump came out ahead in that kind of a metric. That’s what I’ve used in past elections, since 1996, to make predictions, and it has worked in all of those five elections to predict the popular vote winner. That’s my sense and my confidence, that the prediction might be right.”

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